Copper supply in 2026

A significant copper story that developed in 2025 was strained supply. Throughout the year, significant events dragged on the availability of mined copper, delaying its arrival to global markets.

Early on, there was a temporary shutdown of BHP’s (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) Escondida mine, the largest copper mine in the world. However, the most significant disruption came late in the year, when 800,000 metric tons (MT) of wet material poured into the primary Grasberg block cave (GBC) at Freeport-McMoRan’s (NYSE:FCX) Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The incident cost seven workers their lives and halted production across the operation.

While the company plans to restart the Big Gossan and Deep Level zones before the end of 2025, a phased restart at the GBC won’t start until the middle of 2026, with full operations not resuming until 2027.

Elsewhere, a seismic event at Ivanhoe Mines’ (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF) Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in May caused flooding and forced the temporary suspension of mining activities. Although some underground operations have resumed, the company is focused on dewatering the lower portions of the mine.

Since the incident, Ivanhoe has been processing stockpiled materials, but in an update on December 3, it suggested that those stores will be depleted during the first quarter of 2026. Subsequently, it has set its 2026 guidance at 380,000 to 420,000 MT before ramping back up to the 500,000 to 540,000 MT range in 2027.

“Grasberg remains a significant disruption that will persist through 2026, and the situation is similar to constraints at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-kakula, which experienced output cuts this year,’ he said.

‘We believe these outages will keep the market in deficit in 2026.’

Some relief on the copper supply side may come from the restart of operations at First Quantum Minerals’ (TSX:FM,OTC Pink:FQVLF) Cobre Panama mine. It was forced to shut down in November 2023 after Panama’s supreme court cancelled new 20 year mining contract signed in October 2023. This past Septembe, the Panamanian government ordered a review of the mining lease to restart operations at the site in late 2025 or early 2026.

Similar to Grasberg, restarting mining operations may take some time to return to full production, causing a lag before material from the mine can ease undersupplied market conditions.

Copper demand in 2026

Copper demand is on the rise due to demand from the energy transition, artificial intelligence (AI) and the expansion of data centers, as well as the rapid urbanization of the Global South. However, in 2025, significant demand was also driven by US tariff concerns, as traders have worked to import refined material into the country.

“A huge amount of this tightness has to do with US tariff concerns with refined copper inflows into the US having jumped MT over the year, putting inventory in the country to 750,000 MT,” she said.

Scott-Gray pointed to a “perfect storm” brewing in 2025’s fourth quarter , including a warming outlook driven by easing China-US tensions, US interest rate cuts and China’s 15th five year plan, set to run from 2026 to 2031.

Historically, one of the biggest demand drivers for copper has been the Chinese real estate sector; however, tighter regulations, high debt and low liquidity led to its collapse in 2021, even though the Chinese government has instituted several policies over the past several years to stimulate the sector, to no avail.

According to Reuters, Chinese home prices are set to fall 3.7 percent in 2025, and are expected to decline into the new year as well. Despite these issues, the Chinese economy proved to be robust in 2025 and is expected to post growth of 4.9 percent in 2025 and 4.8 percent in 2026, fueled by high-tech exports.

Additionally, the five-year plan outlays upgrades to the metals sector and growth in new energy.

“Weakness in the property market is likely to continue in 2026, but the story for copper is constructive. Policy focus and capital are expected to prioritize expanding the electricity grid, upgrading manufacturing, renewables and AI-related data centers. These copper-intensive areas are set to more than compensate for a subdued property market, yielding net growth in China’s copper demand next year,” White said.

Copper crunch keeps building

“These things are taking years to fix — so let’s say it takes some of them a year to get fixed and back on track, some of them two years. We’re looking at 2027; by then, the copper demand side will have kicked up even more. My base case is actually for copper deficits to broaden in the next couple of years, then just continue broadening,” he said.

The supply side is also facing headwinds as new operations haven’t come online to replace existing mines that are increasingly challenged by declining grades. While there is new supply in the pipeline, like Arizona Sonoran Copper Company’s (TSX:ASCU,OTCQX:ASCUF) brownfield Cactus project and the Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) and BHP joint venture Resolution project, both in Arizona, they’re still years away.

“While new projects may add tonnage at the margin, demand growth is likely to outpace any supply additions, which points to further supply deficits that escalate over the coming years,” White said.

A May 1 report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development notes that demand is expected to grow by 40 percent by 2040, requiring US$250 billion in investment capital and the construction of 80 new mines.

The report stated that half of the world’s copper reserves are currently located in just five countries.

Chile, Australia, Peru, the DRC and Russia, with structural challenges setting up that go beyond declining grades, most notably geopolitical risk and long mining times.

The scale of the challenges was recently outlined in a report from Wood Mackenzie, which forecast demand increasing by 24 percent to 43 million MT per year by 2035. To balance the market, the report states that 8 million MT of new supply will be required, along with 3.5 million MT from scrap.

Investor takeaway

Overall, according to the International Copper Study Group’s (ICSG) most recent forecast, released on October 8, mine production is expected to increase 2.3 percent in 2026 to 23.86 million MT.

However, refined production is only predicted to increase by 0.9 percent to 28.58 million MT.

Regarding demand, the group stated that refined copper use is expected to grow by 2.1 percent to 28.73 million MT in 2026, outpacing production growth and leading to a 150,000 MT deficit by the end of the year.

White is bullish on copper in 2026, citing low inventories and mine and concentrate deficits. He also suggested tariff threats may not be over, and that regional price differentials and high physical premiums are likely to continue.

With copper deficits expected to accelerate in 2026, prices are set up to hit record highs. Scott-Gray said 2026 could see the average price climb to US$10,635 per MT, with higher prices likely to be off-putting to more price-sensitive buyers.

Additionally, with long-term premiums near record highs, she said market players may look to make purchases on a “just-in-time” basis from alternative sources, such as bonded warehouses or directly from smelters.

Depending on price and supply, consumers could also look to swap out copper for aluminum where practical, though Scott-Gray noted that the switch would have its own limitations.

In data provided by Scott-Gray from StoneX’s Base Metal Front Desk Call, 40 percent of respondents to an LME Metals Poll believe that copper will be the best-performing base metal in 2026.

U3O8 spot price, December 5, 2024, to December 5, 2025.

Chart via Trading Economics.

Despite a subdued stretch for the price, uranium’s long-term drivers remain firmly intact, and arguably have only improved over the course of the year. Combined with renewed investor appetite, that strength has helped lift uranium equities throughout 2025, reinforcing confidence in the sector’s long-term thesis.

Uranium investment demand surges

For Joe Kelly, CEO of Uranium Markets, one of the most compelling uranium market trends in 2025 was the growth in investor demand, particularly for physical uranium.

SPUT had added 7.8 million pounds, growing its uranium holdings to 74.04 million pounds, as of December 2, a 12 percent increase from 2024’s tally. Its net asset value had increased to US$5.68 billion.

Kelly explained that SPUT’s momentum was the result of broader investor enthusiasm, allowing the trust to purchase millions of pounds from the spot market, which “drove the price considerably higher.”

That dynamic extended beyond institutional vehicles.

“You also had investors buying uranium directly because they thought it was cheap and a good investment,” he said.

The result was a layer of financial demand on top of utility needs. According to Kelly, this speculative interest created demand outside of the nuclear power plants in the world. “That drove the price up a little bit higher than it would have been otherwise, without that enthusiasm from the investing community,” he added.

SPUT’s aggressive accumulation has become a clear market signal.

The trust’s growing holdings highlight how institutional investors increasingly view uranium as scarce, tightening available supply by removing material from the open market. As inventories shrink, upward pressure on prices builds.

At the same time, SPUT’s rising net asset value reflects renewed investor confidence tied to reactor buildouts, energy security priorities and the broader clean energy shift.

If the trust keeps buying while mine output lags and utilities lock in long-term contracts, the market could be moving toward a structural deficit, drawing even more attention to uranium equities and physical vehicles.

Uranium term price underscores market momentum

Often described as a more accurate barometer of market activity and sentiment, the long-term contract price displayed less volatility in 2025, starting the 12 month period at US$80 and reaching US$86 at the end of November.

Tiggre stressed that the uranium sector’s “real market is the long-term contract price,” not the day-to-day noise of the spot price. Long-term contracting, he said, is where “actual buyers, sellers, users and suppliers” negotiate prices that determine what it really takes to bring new pounds to market.

The challenge, however, is opacity. “It’s not transparent … they don’t disclose individual contracts,” he said. That leaves analysts to piece together trends from quarterly averages.

Long-term contract price, January 1 to November 30, 2025.

Chart via Cameco.

That underlying market has continued to strengthen from 2024 to 2025.

As Tiggre noted, the long-term price has been “going up, pausing, consolidating, going up,” reaching levels that “clearly do incent production” — yet even the world’s biggest producers have struggled to deliver.

Global uranium majors Cameco (TSX:CCO,NYSE:CCJ) and Kazatomprom “both failed to hit their targets and have officially moved their goal posts,” a signal he called “significant and … bullish.”

Meanwhile, would-be junior producers have not stepped in to fill the gap.

“None of them have been able to say, ‘Yeah, we’re going to build this or rehabilitate that’ and deliver on time,” he noted. What looked like low-hanging fruit has proven “thorny,” reinforcing that supply remains constrained.

At the same time, demand momentum has only accelerated. Headlines showcasing new reactor builds are now “weekly,” Tiggre said, with BRICS nations expanding aggressively and western governments shifting decisively pro-nuclear. Even in the US, he noted, “Trump has doubled down … he’s strongly pro-nuclear.”

The result: A structurally tight market where volatile spot moves obscure a far more durable trend.

“The fundamentals are just super strong,” Tiggre said. “I’m very bullish.”

Uranium doubles as a tech play

Part of uranium’s demand story is tied to forecast growth in artificial intelligence (AI) data center deployment, a segment where electricity consumption has grown by 12 percent since 2019, as per the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Currently data centers use 415 terawatt hours (TWh), representing 1.5 percent of global electricity demand, and that number is projected to increase rapidly over the next five years.

“Our Base Case finds that global electricity consumption for data centres is projected to double to reach around 945 TWh by 2030 in the Base Case, representing just under 3 percent of total global electricity consumption in 2030,” the IEA’s Energy Demand from AI report reads. “From 2024 to 2030, data centre electricity consumption grows by around 15 percent per year, more than four times faster than the growth of total electricity consumption from all other sectors.”

For Gerardo Del Real, publisher at Digest Publishing, the uranium sector’s momentum has shifted as an unexpected coalition of “tech bros” and “mining bros” reshapes the narrative around nuclear power.

“Who would have thought?” said Del Real, noting that after an 18 month stretch where the uranium trade “seemed stuck in the mud,” sentiment turned sharply once markets began viewing nuclear as a technology story.

“The market is one part fundamentals and the other part psychology,” Del Real explained, adding that the psychological boost from the booming tech sector has been powerful.

While he’s skeptical that every AI-fueled data center proposal will materialize, Del Real argued that even limited progress could supercharge energy demand. If tech companies “fulfill 35 percent to 50 percent of their promises,” he said, the resulting power requirements would be “absolutely spectacular.”

This comes as the uranium market was already heading toward a significant deficit by 2026, a trend Del Real believes has now accelerated. Leaning into his contrarian instincts, he said he has written “more checks than ever” for early stage uranium companies with trusted management teams.

“I am thrilled with the results thus far,” said Del Real.

“I think 2026 is going to be an inflection year where the breakout is really pronounced across the board.”

Investor Insight

Sankamap Metals offers exposure to new copper–gold discovery potential in one of the last underexplored regions of the Ring of Fire, with two fully owned, drill-ready assets positioned along a world-class mineral belt.

Company Highlights

• Two 100 percent owned copper and gold properties – Kuma and Fauro – within a highly prospective copper-gold trend in the Solomon Islands.
• Drill-ready targets supported by strong historical sampling, including grab samples up to 11.7 percent copper, 13.5 grams per ton (g/t) gold at Kuma, and 173 g/t gold; plus, drill intercepts of 35 m at 2.08 g/t gold at Fauro.
• Strategically located along the same mineral belt as major deposits, including Newmont’s 71.9 Moz Lihir gold mine.
• Underexplored mining-friendly jurisdiction with strong government support and established local workforce.
• Large-scale system potential, including a km-scale copper-gold anomaly at Kuma and multiple high-grade epithermal and porphyry-style targets at Fauro.
• Inaugural drilling at Kuma, scheduled to begin in January 2026, marking a major catalyst for the project.
• Strong technical leadership, with a management team that has collectively raised over $1 billion and delivered significant shareholder returns.

Overview

Sankamap Metals (CSE:SCU) is a Canadian exploration company advancing the Oceania Project, a high-impact copper–gold opportunity in the mineral-rich South Pacific. The project includes two fully permitted properties – Kuma and Fauro – in the Solomon Islands, one of the last untapped frontiers of the Pacific Ring of Fire.

The company’s land package is strategically positioned near world-class deposits, such as Newmont Mining’s 71.9 Moz Lihir gold mine and Bougainville Copper’s historic Panguna deposit with 19.3 Moz gold and 5.3 Mt copper resources.

CEO John Florek investigating mineralized outcrop at Kuma property during the summer site visit

Kuma and Fauro are 100 percent owned and drill-ready. Both assets benefit from compelling historical sampling, large-scale geophysical anomalies, and district-scale geological characteristics that support the potential for major porphyry and epithermal systems.

The company focuses on systematic exploration, delineating high-priority drill targets to unlock discovery opportunities. With strong national support for mining and a leadership team deeply experienced in major global jurisdictions, Sankamap is well positioned to generate early and meaningful shareholder value as exploration advances.

Key Properties

Kuma Property

The Kuma property spans 43 sq km and lies 37 km southeast of Honiara on Guadalcanal Island. The property is considered a highly compelling drill-ready porphyry target. Historical sampling returned values up to 11.7 percent copper and 13.5 g/t gold, accompanied by a kilometre-scale copper-gold geochemical anomaly. Airborne geophysical surveys, including mobile magnetotelluric (MT), reveal resistive and conductive features consistent with porphyry, epithermal and skarn-style mineral systems.

Kuma benefits from year-round access and proximity to the Gold Ridge mine. Lidar, surface geochemistry, and geophysics surveys have advanced target definition toward a 2026 drill program. Alteration mapping defined a 2 km lithocap, indicating a potential significant porphyry below that’s not yet tested by drilling.

Kuma is positioned for discovery potential on a scale comparable to other major systems in the region.

Current work at Kuma is focused on refining priority drill targets through ongoing analysis of newly released geophysical and geological datasets. A field visit in November was aimed at ground-truthing these targets, confirming interpretations, and finalizing on-the-ground logistics. Pad and camp construction began in late November, ahead of the inaugural drilling campaign set for January 2026, an important milestone in advancing the Kuma property toward discovery.

Fauro Property

The 147 sq km Fauro property encompasses a high-grade epithermal gold target with indications of a porphyry system at depth. Formed by the collapse of the Fauro calc-alkaline volcano, the property hosts seven prospects, three of which are drill-ready. Historical results include a grab sample of 173 g/t gold, trench results of 8 m at 27.95 g/t gold, and drilling intercepts such as 35 m at 2.08 g/t gold. Multiple zones, including Meriguna, Ballyorlo and Kiovakase, exhibit robust soil anomalies and magnetic highs, underscoring the property’s potential to host a large-scale deposit comparable in setting to the Lihir gold system.

Since 2024, new sampling has confirmed continued high-grade potential, with assays returning up to 19.25 g/t gold and up to 4 percent copper, expanding evidence for a hybrid epithermal-porphyry system. With year-round drilling access and efficient transport via helicopter and boat, Fauro represents a major exploration opportunity with multiple existing gold intercepts and untested porphyry indicators.

Management Team

John Florek – Chief Executive Officer

John Florek has more than 35 years of experience with major and junior mining companies, including BHP, Placer Dome, Barrick, Teck, and Detour Gold/Kirkland Lake Gold/Agnico Eagle. He has identified and advanced significant mining assets from early exploration through development and currently sits on the board of McEwen Mining. He is also CEO, president and director of Emperor Metals.

John Williamson – Chairman, Co-founder and Director

A professional geologist with more than 35 years in the global mining sector, John Williamson founded more than 20 successful companies and the Metals Group. He has raised more than $1 billion across public and private markets, delivering strong returns to shareholders.

Sean Mager – CFO and Director

With 30+ years in the global mining sector, Sean Mager brings extensive experience in corporate development, stakeholder relations, regulatory affairs, finance and operations. He is a co-founder of the Metals Group.

Krystle Adair – Vice-president, Exploration

A geologist with more than 13 years of exploration experience across the Americas, Krystle Adair has managed projects across multiple deposit types. She has worked extensively with Metals Group companies and is a registered professional geoscientist in British Columbia.

Hannett – Director

A Bougainville Island national and professional engineer with 17+ years of experience, Arthur Hannett has worked with major operators including Placer Dome, Barrick, Glencore and Agnico Eagle.

Donald Marahare – Director

A seasoned legal professional with 20+ years of experience in the Solomon Islands, Donald Marahare is the principal at DNS & Partners Law Firm, admitted to the High Court in 2000. He also serves as president of the Solomon Islands Football Federation.